AS-4 as on 2.30pm Monday: 14.4N and 68.7E...moved Due West since 11.30 am Monday
AS-4, IMD has declared it as a deep depression now, is currently located at 14.3N and 69E, thus moving NW again, and steadily. It is due west of Mangalore on Monday morning.
This system has strengthened, and a deep convection is seen in the cloud mass N/NW of the centre. The thick mass is spread from 13.00N to 19.00N and 64.00E to 71.00E. In fact, the convection effect has towered the cloud tops to more than 18-20 kms in height, with the lowest minimum cloud top tempertaure touching -85c !
Well, it is expected to strengthen more, till Tuesday, when it would have reached its peak.After that, it will weaken considerably, and may not cross coast as a system at all.
Reason: The SST is 29c at the centre now, and is decreasing northwards.The ocean heat content is 80-90 KJ/cm2 as on the system's location now, but becomes less than 40 KJ/cm2 towards the North Arabian Sea.The anti cyclone on the East coast of India is pushing westwards.
Saurashtra/South Gujarat coast and North Konkan will be cloudy and have light rains on Monday.
Indications show the clouding moving towards the Sindh coast from Tuesday.
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